People on estate facing demolition for HS2 could struggle to find new homes

By Helen Pidd

Government report finds that residents of Shimmer estate may not receive adequate compensation to acquire similar properties in light of shortage

Opponents of HS2 say engineers did not even realise that the newly built Shimmer estate, Mexborough, existed when they planned the route. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/for the Guardian

The government has said that residents of a brand new housing estate facing demolition to make way for the HS2 railway could struggle to find replacement homes nearby.

More than 130 families living on the Shimmer estate in Mexborough, South Yorkshire, may have to leave their homes after the government decided that the HS2 train line should go right through their neighbourhood. Some only moved in days before the route was proposed in July last year.


They are among 540 homeowners within 100 metres of the new Yorkshire leg of the line who potentially face being forced out of their homes, according to research by the Yorkshire HS2 action groups, who oppose the route. The campaigners argue that an earlier proposal, which would have seen the line go to Meadowhall shopping centre, north-east of the city centre, rather than follow the M18 motorway to the city centre, would have resulted in only 296 residential demolitions.

Opponents to HS2 claim that engineers didn’t even know that Shimmer existed when they planned the route, chosen by transport secretary Chris Grayling on Monday. Construction of the estate began only in 2011 and it doesn’t appear on Google Maps or most satellite navigation systems.

Grayling said only 16 homes would have to be demolished to make way for a viaduct to carry the high-speed line, but residents believe the whole estate is doomed. Many feel that they are not being offered a fair price by the government to sell up and fear that they will find themselves in negative equity.

On Tuesday, the government published a report by property specialists Carter Jonas which found that the compensation package offered may not allow some Shimmer homeowners to acquire a similar property in the local area.

House prices on the estate have already dropped by an average of 10% of their original purchase prices, according to Carter Jonas. Consultants found that a shortage of similar new-build properties in the surrounding area could lead to price inflation as ousted Shimmer residents bid against each other.

“The value of properties on the Shimmer estate, together with a low supply of affordable housing in Mexborough and its surrounding areas, could therefore make it difficult for homeowners to buy a local equivalent property with statutory compensation they would receive from the government,” the report concluded.

According to Carter Jonas, 130 houses have been sold on the estate, with a further 90 properties either built and unsold or yet to be built. All homeowners can now apply for the government to buy their properties at the “HS2 unblighted” market rate, plus 10% compensation and moving costs.

Peter Douglas, 63, and his wife Sue, 66, bought their house on the Shimmer estate for £165,000 in 2014 and spent two years doing it up for their retirement. Their home is only five metres from the proposed viaduct, so is not included in the 16 definitely facing the bulldozers, but they have applied for the government to buy their home. “Who in their right mind would want to buy or rent a house next to a railway line running 200mph trains?” said Peter.

They are preparing for “hard negotiations” to secure a fair price, fearing that because the estate has never been finished (because of uncertainty over HS2), they will be undervalued.

Andrew Weaver, chief executive of Strata, which built Shimmer, said: “Our thoughts are with the homeowners, who like us, have had to live through over 12 months of uncertainty for a decision to be made. The residents remain our priority and we now need to understand what this decision means for the development and the Strata business as a whole.”

Grayling said on Tuesday: “Britain’s new railway line will bring huge economic benefits across the country and help ensure this government delivers on its promise to spread wealth beyond London and the south-east.

“We will now press ahead with building the line, while continuing to ensure affected communities get appropriate support and are treated with fairness, compassion and respect.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/18/people-on-estate-facing-demolition-for-hs2-could-struggle-to-find-new-homes

Zoopla acquisition of Expert Agent is cleared by Competition and Markets Authority

By Rosalind Renshaw

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ZPG’s acquisition of software firm Expert Agent has been cleared by the Competition and Markets Authority.

ZPG, which also operates a number of other estate agency software brands after its acquisition of the Property Software Group for £75m last year, completed on the purchase of Expert Agent in March.

However, later that month the purchase was ‘called in’ by the CMA.

ZPG was told to ‘hold separate’ Expert Agent pending the outcome of the review.

Yesterday the transaction received the green light, and ZPG said it is now able to progress with its integration plans for the business, although it indicated at the time of its acquisition that it intends to continue to operate Expert Agent as a stand-alone brand and platform.

Mark Goddard, managing director of ZPG’s Property division, said: “We are delighted but not surprised by the outcome of this review by the CMA.

“We always felt that the UK property software sector is well served by numerous players who offer strong, effective competition, and are pleased that the CMA has come to the same conclusion.

“With this matter now concluded, we will be progressing our plans to integrate Expert Agent into the wider ZPG business and to deliver the related benefits for our partners.”

We were unable to reach Expert Agent founder Mike Griffiths for comment. He and his staff were on an away day to Weymouth and said to be enjoying ice creams and donkey rides.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/zoopla-acquisition-of-expert-agent-is-cleared-by-competition-and-markets-authority/

NLA announces launch of new training courses for members

By Marc Da Silva

The National Landlords Association (NLA) has announced that it is launching two new training courses for its members next month.

The ‘Planning a Successful Investment’ course is aimed at individuals who are contemplating becoming a landlord and established landlords looking to expand their property portfolios, while the ‘Specialist Landlord Taxation’ course is aimed at landlords who want to learn more about property taxation with a view of putting a long-term plan into place.

Planning a Successful Investment

The one day course will provide landlords who are members of the NLA with an overview of all the key considerations in terms of investing in the buy-to-let sector, as well as a solid understanding of the purchasing process, top tips and hints for researching properties to purchase, guidance and advice on how to expand or improve existing portfolios, along with strategies and options to get the best out of investments, including renovating existing properties.

The course content includes finding the right property, the process of buying a property, how to undertake renovations and manage plans and contractors, how to market and prepare a property for tenants, the pros and cons of using an agent, how to find the right finance and mortgages, business planning and exit strategies,


Specialist Landlord Taxation

This one day course is aimed at landlords who want to learn more about property taxation with a view of putting a long-term plan into place.

The course will provide landlords with an overview of the tax regime and the general principles of property taxation, guidance on understanding and clarifying future tax liabilities, the various options available to reduce ongoing and potential tax bills, as well as the confidence and support in running more tax-efficient property portfolios.

The course content includes an introduction and overview of the tax regime, the different property taxes, including capital gains tax, corporation tax and inheritance tax, the implications of Section24 of the Finance Act and recent changes to buy-to-let taxation, gifting and potentially exempt transfer, the benefits of incorporating or holding properties as a company, along with self-assessment and tax returns, including recent changes to digital tax.

https://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/5/nla-announces-launch-of-new-training-courses-for-members

Which? calls for next government to review role of estate agents

By Rosalind Renshaw

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Consumer organisation Which? is calling for the next government to review the role of estate agents in the ‘out-dated’ home buying and selling process.

Which? also said that all political parties should set out in their manifestos how they intend to improve the home-buying process for consumers.

In particular, said Which?, parties should commit to ensuring that estate agents deliver a better service for both home-buyers and sellers, and that the conveyancing process is simplified.

The call comes after new research by Which? found that home buying and selling ranks as one of the top three consumer concerns for half (49%) of 18- to 34-year-olds.

Younger people consider it more of a concern than social care for older people (46%) or energy prices (34%).

For adults of all ages, three in ten (28%) cite home buying and selling as a top three priority for the next government, rising to four in ten (42%) for those living in London.

Which? research last year showed that three in ten (28%) house purchases fall through, leading to an average loss to the potential buyer of £2,200, and that it typically takes four to five months to complete a property purchase.

Which? says the next government should conduct a thorough review of the home-buying process to make the system easier particularly for buyers. The review must examine the role played by estate agents and conveyancers.

Alex Neill, Which? managing director of Home Products and Services, said: “Buying a home is one of the most significant purchases consumers ever make and one of the most stressful life experiences.

“It takes people far too long to buy property and home-buyers are losing out on substantial amounts of money due to flaws in the system. The next government must fix the outdated home-buying process.”

Over a year ago, then Chancellor George Osborne said he would “shortly” be calling for views on how the home buying and selling process could be improved. That call never came.


Which? has been vociferous in calling for a ban on letting agent fees but this is an indication that it could be turning its fire on sales agents.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/which-calls-for-next-government-to-review-role-of-estate-agents/

Estate agency industry suffers ‘worst staff shortages’ in a generation – despite branch closures

By Rosalind Renshaw

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An estate agent recruitment consultancy says that the sector is experiencing the worst staff shortages in a generation.

Cutbacks made by firms last summer look to have been premature, as they may have driven good people out of the industry, and are said to be responsible for the shortage this spring.

Property Personnel managing director Anthony Hesse says that the number of residential sales vacancies registered with the company in the first quarter of this year has more than doubled compared to the same period last year.

This is despite redundancies and branch closures – most notably by Countrywide, which has reported shutting 200 outlets in the last year, while LSL has closed 21.

Hesse said: “It’s a really strange market out there in estate agency at the moment – but the lack of available recruits is a defining factor.

“One of our clients has over 100 vacancies they are unable to fill; another has 46 property manager vacancies that they can’t find suitable candidates for.

“I would say that the struggle to fill vacancies is currently second only to the difficulties estate agencies are experiencing financially.”

We asked Hess if there was any trend towards candidates not wanting to work for corporates, but he told EYE: “I don’t think so. In fact, we make as many placements with independents and small boutique agencies as we do the large corporates. This trend seems to be happening across the board.

“The belief that the ‘grass is always greener’ means that we get people at large corporates who want to go and work for small independents, as well as people at small independents who want to go and work for large corporates – in almost equal measure.

“The truth is, the low availability of candidates is down to the agencies stopping recruiting last summer. The impact of that is starting to filter through now. Added to which, despite Brexit, there’s a genuine feeling of optimism out there. And we’re working hard to secure placements wherever we can.”

Hesse’s comments echo broader observations made by Recruitment and Employment Confederation chief executive Kevin Green, who said: “Although permanent placements have hit a 12-month high, businesses across the UK are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit for permanent roles.

“The big question still remains about how employers will fill their vacancies.”

Hesse added: “After nearly 30 years of placing personnel in all areas of residential estate agency, the number of vacancies registered with us is a good indication of confidence in the sector.

“So in many ways, this is an excellent time for people who are prepared to move jobs, as those hiring them compete to secure the talent available.

“It’s also a good time to welcome people into estate agency for the first time. Last year, 36% of our placements were people with no experience in estate agency whatsoever.

“And this year, around a third of our clients would consider candidates with a similar background.

“So the opportunities are definitely out there for those who want to discover what a dynamic and exciting industry this is.”

Whilst the number of sales vacancies registered with Property Personnel has more than doubled, the number of lettings vacancies has remained stable in comparison.


Hesse said: “The three months after the referendum saw a significant drop in the number of vacancies available – especially in residential sales, but also a slight dip in lettings. However, on the sales side, nine months later, there are scores of jobs available out there.”

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/estate-agency-industry-suffers-worst-staff-shortages-in-a-generation-despite-branch-closures/

Foreign billionaires in London choosing to rent to avoid stamp duty

By Rupert Neate

Number of lettings costing more than £3,000 a week increased by 28% in the last three months of 2016, research shows

One Hyde Park, left, in London. An apartment in a building next to the luxury flat complex has been put up for rent for £40,000 a week. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Foreign billionaires are renting rather than buying luxury homes in London following increases in tax bills on upmarket properties. Lettings that cost more than £3,000 a week – £156,000 a year – increased by 28% in the last three months of 2016, according to research by the property data service LonRes.

The number of prime central lettings in the capital has risen steadily since the introduction in April 2016 of a 15% stamp duty tax on properties bought via offshore trusts, and a three percentage point surcharge on stamp duty on second homes.

Marcus Dixon, LonRes’s head of research, said that rich foreigners who previously would have shelled out £10m or more on a London home are choosing to rent to avoid paying the tax.

“The stamp duty cost at the very top end is significant,” he said. “Especially as you have to consider that a majority of these people would be buying it as an additional property so would be paying the additional 3% second-home tax as well.”

Stamp duty on properties selling for more than £1.5m is 12%, rising to 15% if it is a second home.. Last year, stamp duty raised £7.3bn for the government– £3.4bn from London. The boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster both brought in more than £500m – more than 25 times what was generated in Northern Ireland.

The website Rightmove lists more than1,100 London properties with rents in excess of £3,000, including a £40,000 a week six-bedroom Knightsbridge penthouse apartment in a block next to the Candy brothers’ One Hyde Park development.

Also available for £40,000 a week is a seven-bedroom house in Mayfair, that features a movie room, swimming pool and underground garage.

Georgina Bartlett, the head of lettings at Savills, said there were far more luxurious properties available to rent than those listed online.

“Since the start of 2017 the market above £4,000 per week has been very buoyant,” she said. “We’re currently dealing with three applicants with budgets of over £5,000 per week who had previously been looking to purchase a property in London.”

Tom Smith, Knight Frank’s head of super-prime lettings, said: “The super-prime market has performed markedly better than the prime market. In fact, if anything, the [super-prime] pricing has held very firm, which we would link back to scarcity of supply.”

The agents said £3,000 a week would not come close to the cost of renting an apartment in One Hyde Park or other luxury developments, but would secure a large house or flat in Belgravia or Mayfair. They said the vast majority of renters in the £3,000-plus bracket were from overseas, particularly the Middle East and the US.

Dixon said: “They like wine cellars, spas and concierges – those that provide concierge services similar to really high-end hotels can command a premium.”

Some owners who had listed their luxury properties for sale are choosing to let them out instead.

Rupert Bradstock, a partner at a luxury London property investment fund, said he and his partners decided to rent out all of the multimillion-pound Kensington homes the fund had bought rather than sell them. “The plan was to buy them, hold them for a period, then sell them. Now we are going to keep them rented. We made the decision last year when it became clear the stamp duty was badly affecting the market.”

Bradstock’s fund, Lennox Investment Management, owns eight Kensington homes ranging in value from £8m to £20m. He said they deal with “a complete cross section of nationalities, all from overseas, all working”.

Bradstock said the interest in luxury rentals was directly related to stamp duty. “You’re now looking at trading costs close to 20%,” he said. “If you take a £5m property, the costs are going to be close to £1m – divided by five that is £200,000 a year, which is close to the rent of a house worth £5m. That is why so many people are choosing to rent, not buy.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/12/foreign-billionaires-london-choosing-rent-avoid-stamp-duty

Thousands of landlords face prosecution

By Marc Da Silva
February 06, 2017

An investigation has been launched after details of hundreds of landlords who have not yet registered on a Wales-wide scheme were revealed.

Rent Smart Wales contacted people who had started but not finished the registration process, but the email addresses of recipients could be seen in the message.

Cardiff council, which handles Rent Smart Wales, said it is aware of an issue and it is being investigated.

Thousands of buy-to-let landlords could face fines and possibly even prosecution for failing to sign up to the new registration and licensing system in Wales.

More than two months have passed since the Welsh government’s Rent Smart Wales scheme became law, and yet it is estimated that thousands of private landlords in Wales have still not signed up to the scheme, which could mean that they are letting out properties illegally.

The email sent out told landlords: "We are writing this email to you as you have a started but not complete landlord registration with Rent Smart Wales."

Douglas Haig, director for Wales for the Residential Landlords Association, said: "We have long been warning of the need for greater security around the Rent Smart scheme to prevent this kind of error occurring.

"With landlords and letting agents expected to register by law, they need to have the confidence that their personal details will be handled sensitively.

"Whilst we are sure this was an innocent mistake and a simple case of human error, we would like to see measures put in place to ensure it cannot happen again."

Property experts at the Cardiff office of Bruton Knowles fear many buy-to-let landlords outside of the principality could also be in line for a nasty shock.

The company claim that the main issue for non-Wales based landlords is the complete lack of awareness that they had to sign up to the new scheme.

Rent Smart Wales (RSW), the new registration and licensing system in Wales, which went live in 2015, represents a major change for the private rental sector in the principality.


The scheme requires all landlords and letting agents to register their properties and undergo training to obtain a licence if they wish to self-manage their rental investment.

https://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2016/12/thousands-of-landlords-face-prosecution

UK regional cities appear to be reporting record levels of construction activity

By Sigmon Montgomery
February 06, 2017

The latest reports from the Deloitte Real Estate team saw Manchester break ground on 22 residential sites (eight more than the previous high of 14 in 2007) and in the process delivering 7000 units to the market. As predicted Manchester's skyline will change forever, 4 schemes are over 25 stories.

Leeds saw 20 major construction schemes completed in 2016, retailers leading the way. Belfast recorded 19 schemes under construction (11 completing in 2016) spread between education, student accommodation, office and eight hotels, however residential schemes were modest in Belfast as they were in Leeds.

The Birmingham survey identified 1.4 million sq. ft. in office space, up 50% on the previous year. It also had a 10 fold increase on residential schemes, totaling 2,331 units in the city center.


It is a great sign for the growth and resurgence in the regions, long may it continue.

The latest reports in the Deloitte Real Estate Crane Survey series monitor construction activity in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Belfast. According to the report authors, each city has seen a significant rise in development across a range of sectors including offices, flats, hotels, shops, education and student housing.

http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/developers-drawn-to-regional-cities-crane-survey-suggests

http://thoughtleadership.collingwoodsearch.co.uk/post/102dyyv/uk-regional-cities-appear-to-be-reporting-record-levels-of-construction-activity

UK luxury home sales are recovering, estate agents say

Buyer interest in prime residential property higher in July and August than in 2015, according to Knight Frank

The luxury property market in the UK is gradually recovering following the shock of Britain voting to leave the EU, according to one of the country’s leading property agents.

Knight Frank said the number of exchanges agreed on homes worth more than £750,000 was down 20% on last year since the referendum, while the value of commercial property sales in July and August was 47% down on 2015.

However, Alistair Elliott, the senior partner and chairman of Knight Frank, said the aftermath of the Brexit vote had been “less dramatic than feared”. Apple recently gave a major boost to the London property market by signing up for 500,000 sq ft of new office space at Battersea power station, while the number of prospective buyers registering their interest in prime residential property in the UK was higher in July and August than in 2015.

“In the first half of this year, UK markets became distracted by the looming EU referendum,” Elliott said. “Nonetheless, the fundamentals remain strong and the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote has been less dramatic than feared. Volumes and prices, especially in the residential sector, are down but activity is gradually recovering.”

Elliott said property in the UK looks attractive despite the referendum result, with the slump in the value of sterling lowering the price for international investors and low-interest rates meaning that property offers higher potential annual returns than other assets such as bonds.

Despite the 20% drop in prime residential property deals, Knight Frank reported that the number of offers being made on properties is only 6% lower than last year with those accepted 6% higher. The number of prospective buyers has also risen.

Elliott said this was likely to lead to an improvement in sales volumes in the final quarter of 2016, although the market is still likely to be smaller than last year due to factors unrelated to Brexit, such as the government introducing a higher rate of stamp duty on prime properties and second homes.

Sadiq Khan, the new mayor of London, has warned of a clampdown on overseas buyers of property, but Elliott lent his support to the former Labour MP. “London needs a balanced housing market and more supply,” Elliott said. “He is committed to building more homes – that is good news.”

In the commercial market, the Knight Frank boss said companies were hesitant about signing up for new office space, particularly in the City, although 24 of the 31 deals above 20,000 sq ft that the agent had been tracking in central London have been completed.

Knight Frank, whose clients include Google, reported a 4% increase in annual revenues to £461m but a 5% drop in profits to £153m. Its 550 partners will share a bonus of £84m, up from £80m last year, on the back of the results.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/10/uk-luxury-home-sales-are-recovering-estate-agents-say

UK faces shortfall of 1.8m rental homes, warns housing body

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is urging government to reverse stamp duty changes on second homes and incentivise build-to-rent scheme

The UK is facing a shortfall of 1.8m rental properties unless the government acts fast to slow a sharp drop in the number of available homes, according to a leading housing industry body.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) called on the government to drop reverse stamp duty changes on second homes and consider incentives for build-to-rent schemes, after it found a drop in property investors’ appetite to add to their buy-to-let portfolios.

The private sector has taken over from councils and housing associations as the biggest provider of rented homes , but Rics found that sales had slowed over the summer, after changes to the stamp duty rules.

Since 1 April, anyone buying a second property has paid a higher rate of tax on the purchase, and there are signs that this has slowed demand. After a surge in sales in the first part of the year, Rics said that a net balance of 58% of estate agents had seen numbers fall since May. A survey of landlords by the group found that 86% had no plans to add to their portfolios this year.

Analysis published last year by accountancy firm PwC suggested that by 2025, 7.2m households would be in rented accommodation, compared with 5.4m in 2015 and 2.3m in 2001. It predicted that a quarter of those tenants would be living in private rented accommodation.

Rics said the stamp duty change, which meant landlords pay a rate three percentage points higher than owner-occupiers, could make a supply crisis more likely, and this could be exacerbated when changes to taxation of mortgage interest start to come into effect in 2017.

It urged the government to drop its previous focus on homeownership and take steps to encourage the provision of more rental homes. It said the new stamp duty rates should be reversed to encourage private landlords, and that pension funds should be incentivised with tax breaks to build large-scale rental properties with affordable elements.

It also called for local authorities holding brownfield sites to be encouraged to release land for build-to-rent developments.

Jeremy Blackburn, Rics head of policy said the country was facing a critical rental shortage.

He said: “The private rented sector became a scape goat under the previous prime minister, and because of that it suffered. Yet with increasingly unaffordable house prices, the majority of British households will be relying on the rental sector in the future.

“We must ensure that it is fit for purpose, and the government must put in place the measures that will allow the rental sector to thrive. Any restrictions on supply will push up rents, marginalising those members of society who are already struggling.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/04/uk-faces-shortfall-of-18m-rental-homes-warns-housing-body

Revealed: the 31 hotspots where house prices will surge now

'You have to ask, 'What would you do with a bigger garden’,” the estate agent said as we stood on a postage-stamp-size piece of fake turf in Barnes four years ago. We both knew what he meant: I couldn’t afford a larger outside space in this part of leafy south-west London. So off I trundled to buy in Twickenham. This was the first time I had considered the commuter “trade-off”.

Urbanites across the UK have been weighing up this equation for generations: lower house prices and a larger plot versus travel time and separation from a city lifestyle.  For some it’s simply about bringing children up in more rural surroundings, changing their pace of life or finding the right schools for the kids.  But, for the most part, this big move is in the pursuit of value for money.

While this commuter conundrum is not new, in no other housing market cycle has the price gap between London and the South East been so great, and therefore the financial motivation to move out so compelling.  New research from Savills has revealed where the next wave of house price rises will come due to increased demand, and the majority are in the ever-expanding outer commuter belt. 

With price rises in the capital (45.1 per cent since the recession) spilling into the Home Counties, buyers are being pushed to consider far-flung towns and villages or Greater London enclaves that have not traditionally been deemed desirable.

 “London has so substantially overperformed since the recession that the price gaps between the capital and the South East are bigger than ever. People who are looking for more space without unduly stretching themselves on their mortgage are searching further afield,” says Lucian Cook, head of residential research for Savills.

High-speed broadband in more rural areas and flexible working arrangements are also encouraging people to fan out, and Cook pinpoints a “herding mentality”. As pioneer commuters settle in more provincial spots, their friends will often follow. House envy is a powerful driver. 

So, where to buy? Here are the 31 places where house prices are expected to rise by more than 20 per cent over the next five years. 

Hart, Hampshire

Skip over pricey parts of Waverley, in Surrey, and head into Hart in Hampshire for better value for money, good state schools and beautiful countryside. The main town of Fleet has a bustling high street, large properties on generous plots and the fast train into Waterloo takes 40 minutes. The picturesque villages of Crondall and Church Crookham have their own junior schools.  

Average house price: £410,076, house price growth 2005-15: 46pc

Bromley, Greater London

Property prices in Bromley grew 10 per cent in 2015 as first-time buyers from inner London looked to get on the ladder somewhere cheap and young families searched for an affordable second home. “People are realising that a slight increase in commuting distance [Bromley is in Tube Zone 6] doesn’t necessarily correlate to a significant increase in commuting time, yet you can get more for your money than you can in the London suburbs, with school spaces more readily available,” says Simon Scott of Savills.  The agent Alan de Maid is selling a three-bedroom semi-detached house in Bromley for £575,000. 

Average house price: £443,767, house price growth 2005-15: 63pc

East Hampshire

The Hindhead tunnel, which runs beneath the Devil’s Punchbowl, a National Trust beauty spot, has opened up East Hampshire to the commuter. With its own station and easy access to protected countryside, the market town of Petersfield has always been on their radar, says Steven Grantham, of Bourne estate agents. “But we’ve seen a considerable rise in demand and prices (above the national average) across the whole area.” 

Buyers who are looking for even better value are now straying into Clandon, Horndean  and East Meon. “We are seeing a lot of people in their mid-40s who have experienced massive house price growth in their London homes, trading them in for an equally sized or even bigger places down here, but with no mortgage,” he adds.

According to George Clarendon, of Knight Frank, the Georgian town of Alresford is attracting downsizers. “Often it appeals to people who already know East Hampshire but want to move from a rural location to somewhere with a vibrant community and more facilities,” he says. 

Average house price: £368,332, house price growth 2005-15: 32pc

Winchester, Hampshire

The cathedral city has plenty of things to do for young families, such as walking the Jane Austen trail or visiting the Science Centre and Planetarium. The month-long Hampshire food festival starts in Winchester on July 1.  “The city has become hugely enticing to all types of buyers: young families, middle-aged couples and those wishing to downsize and enter retirement,” says Edward Cunningham, of Knight Frank.  The train to Waterloo takes just over an hour with easy access to the M3, M27 and A34. Southampton airport is a 15 to 20-minute drive.

Average house price: £434,616, house price growth 2005-15: 41pc

Tunbridge Wells, Kent

“Tunbridge Wells is increasingly popular with families moving from London and expats returning from overseas,” says Robert Jacobs, of Savills. “They like the easy commute, the schools and the atmosphere of the town. There’s good architecture, green spaces and entertainment and plenty of restaurants, cafés and bars.”  Child-friendly beaches, such as Camber Sands in Rye, are only 23 miles away and it’s an easy 55-minute train journey into Charing Cross. Sarah Beeny’s online agent Tepilo is sellinga three-bedroom cottage in Tunbridge Wells for £325,000.  

Average house price: £404,464, house price growth 2005-15: 39pc

Basingstoke and Deane, Hampshire

Basingstoke is an affordable alternative to Reading – the first stop on the Crossrail line into London, running west to east. With more banks and pharmaceutical companies setting up secondary offices in Reading, Basingstoke is becoming a commuter hub.  According to Edward Cunningham, of Knight Frank, the countryside around Basingstoke is also attracting young families.  “Properties are sought after due to several excellent schools: Cheam at Headley, Lord Wandsworth College at Long Sutton and Daneshill  at Stratfield Turgis.” Basingstoke now has a Waitrose and a John Lewis. Carter Jonas is selling a four-bedroom thatched cottage in the nearby village of Oakley for £685,000.

Average house price: £292,678, house price growth 2005-15: 31pc

Horsham, West Sussex

Vic Sawyer is selling his five-bedroom house, Rookwood Park in Horsham (right), for £1.575 million through King & Chasemore. The entrepreneur, who made his fortune in roofing, is downsizing, but not retiring, and raised his family in the area. “Horsham is a brilliant place to bring up kids and we’re seeing more young families are moving into the area,” he says. East Street is considered trendy with the usual chains such as Pizza Express, and independent restaurants such as the Giggling Squid (Thai).

Average house price: £375,412, house price growth 2005-15: 35pc

Here are the rest of the 31 areas predicted to be the next hotspots...

Wycombe, Buckinghamshire

Average house price: £398,629, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

Three Rivers, Hertfordshire

Average house price: £504,672, house price growth 2005-15: 51pc

Surrey Heath, Surrey

Average house price: £406,069, house price growth 2005-15: 40pc

Spelthorne, Surrey 

Average house price: £347,250, house price growth 2005-15: 46pc

Chiltern, Buckinghamshire

Average house price: £566,570, house price growth 2005-15: 50pc

Dacorum, Hertfordshire 

Average house price: £402,499, house price growth 2005-15: 49pc

Sutton, Greater London

Average house price: £360,968, house price growth 2005-15: 53pc

South Oxfordshire 

Average house price: £437,397, house price growth 2005-15: 44pc

West Berkshire

Average house price: £356,687, house price growth 2005-15: 35pc

Hillingdon, Greater London

Average house price: £398,754, house price growth 2005-15: 57pc

Watford, Greater London

Average house price: £336,479, house price growth 2005-15: 47pc

Rushmoor, Hampshire

Average house price: £267,391, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

Croydon, Greater London

Average house price: £343,578, house price growth 2005-15: 53pc

Reigate and Banstead, Surrey

Average house price: £424,914, house price growth 2005-15: 42pc

Tandridge, Surrey

Average house price: £465,344, house price growth 2005-15: 40pc

Enfield, Greater London

Average house price: £393,274, house price growth 2005-15: 56pc

Cherwell, Oxfordshire

Average house price: £291,918, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

Sevenoaks, Kent

Average house price: £461,436, house price growth 2005-15: 42pc

Adur, West Sussex

Average house price: £288,638, house price growth 2005-15: 45pc

Crawley, West Sussex

Average house price: £261,185, house price growth 2005-15: 36pc

West Oxfordshire 

Average house price: £337,349, house price growth 2005-15: 34pc

South Cambridgeshire

Average house price: £367,990, house price growth 2005-15: 45pc

Runnymede, Surrey

Average house price: £437,299, house price growth 2005-15: 42pc

Harrow, Greater London

Average house price: £464,990, house price growth 2005 - 2015: 59pc

 How the research worked

Savills looked at how each local authority performed in three periods 1995 – 2000, 2000 – 2005 and 2005 – 2015 and ranked them according to whether they lead or lagged in these periods. 

Then the research team stripped out the markets that did conform to the leaders and laggers model  and divided the rest into 10 equal groups.

The "next 31 hotspots" are the next decile of the property cycle, of course there will be another decile as the cycle continues.

The map was put together by Frances Clacy in the Savills research team.   

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/revealed-the-31-hotspots-where-house-prices-will-surge-now/